Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 1/26/17


Frozen pork supplies closed out 2016 down 8 percent from levels in November, and down 13 percent from the year earlier, according to USDA’s Cold Storage report, published by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Stocks of pork bellies were down 4 percent from November and down 67 percent from the year earlier.

Frozen pork inventories during December declined by more than any other December over the last 10 years, according to the Daily Livestock Report analysis. The drop in pork totaled 41 million pounds during the month. The year with the next biggest decline was 2006, with a 26 million-pound reduction.

Pork belly frozen inventories for the end of the year were the lowest on record, going back to 1973. Belly inventories at the end of 2016 were 17.8 million pounds, down from 53.4 million pounds a year earlier. The next-lowest end of the year inventory was 28.2 million pounds at the end of 2002.

Based on historic price movements, DLR analysts expect prices, especially for pork bellies (and bacon) to rise through 2017. In order to reach the frozen belly inventory level that was reached in 2015 and 2016, this year bacon consumption will have to drop by 47 million pounds — and typically price increases are used to achieve such a reduction. The January pork belly market is performing consistently, the analysts said, with the value of pork bellies rising from $1.15 in the last week of December to $1.38 by the third week in January.

Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 7 percent from the previous month and up 11 percent from last year. The increasing frozen beef inventories are consistent with exports in the last quarter of 2016 that are on track to be up 15 percent to 20 percent from a year earlier and beef imports that are running 5 percent to 10 percent above the same quarter in 2015, according to the DLR.red meat supplies in freezers were up 1 percent from the previous month but down 2 percent from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies on December 31, 2016 were up 6 percent from the previous month and up 2 percent from a year ago. Total stocks of chicken were up 2 percent from the previous month but down 6 percent from last year. Total pounds of turkey in freezers were up 18 percent from last month and up 39 percent from December 31, 2015.

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