Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 2/1/17



USDA’s Cattle report issued Tuesday showed more cattle on hand on Jan. 1, as well as more heifers retained for beef cow replacement, indications that the cattle expansion is not coming to an end as quickly as analysts had anticipated.

All cattle and calves in the United States, as of Jan. 1, 2017, totaled 93.6 million head, up 2 percent from a year ago and compared to the average estimate of three analysts polled by Urner Barry that the rise would be less than 1 percent.

The report showed beef replacement heifers, at 6.42 million head, up 1 percent from a year ago. Analysts expected that number would actually drop by about 1.2 percent, which would have indicated the expansion was coming to an end.

USDA reported all cows and heifers that have calved at 40.6 million head, up 3 percent from a year ago, beating analysts’ expectation of a 1 percent rise. 

Beef cows, at 31.2 million head, are up 3 percent from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.35 million head, are up just slightly (less than 1 percent) from the previous year.

Calves under 500 pounds were up 2 percent, also beating analysts’ expectation of an only 0.4 percent rise.
Steers weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 16.4 million head, up slightly from one year ago but less than analysts expected.
USDA reported a big jump (4 percent) in bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, a number that analysts were actually expecting to decline slightly from a year ago.  

Calf crop up 3 percent
The 2016 calf crop in the United States was estimated at 35.1 million head, up 3 percent from last year's calf crop. Analysts were expecting the crop to rise by less than 2 percent.

Calves born during the first half of 2016 were estimated at 25.6 million head. This is up 4 percent from the first half of 2015. Calves born during the second half of 2016 were estimated at 9.53 million head, 27 percent of the total 2016 calf crop.
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.1 million head, down 1 percent from a year ago and in line with analysts’ expectations.

Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 81.2 percent of the total cattle on feed on Jan. 1, 2017. This is up 1 percent from the previous year. 

The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots) is 26.6 million head. This is 2 percent above one year ago.

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