Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 2/9/17



USDA lowered its total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2017, largely reflecting decreased pork and poultry forecasts and despite raising its beef production forecast.

Beef
In the agency’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, USDA raised its cattle placements and marketings for the year, resulting in higher cattle slaughter. The January Cattle inventory report estimated that total cattle and calf numbers on Jan. 1, 2017 increased for the third consecutive year.

Beef cow numbers were above 2016, and producers indicated they were holding more heifers for addition to the breeding herd. The report also indicated a year-over-year increase in the number of cattle outside feedlots. The January Cattle on Feed report showed higher than expected placement numbers in December, implying that larger numbers of fed cattle will be marketed during the spring quarter.

USDA reduced its forecast for cattle weights for 2017 as producers are expected to remain current in feedlot marketings.
For 2017, forecast beef imports are raised on expectations of higher shipments of processing beef from Oceania. Robust demand for U.S. beef supports higher forecast beef exports for the year.

USDA raised its 2017 average steer price forecast to a range of $109 to $116 per hundredweight from last month’s range of $106 to $113.

Pork
Pork production in the first quarter is reduced on the current pace of slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights. No changes were made to pork trade estimates.

USDA raised its 2017 average price forecast for barrows and gilts to a range of $42 to $45 per hundredweight from last month’s range of $38 to $41. 

Poultry
The broiler production forecast was lowered, as increases in production in the first quarter are expected to be more than offset by reductions in the second half of the year. No changes were made to broiler trade predictions.

USDA raised its 2017 average broiler price forecast to a range of 82 cents to 87 cents per pound from last month’s range of 80 cents to 86 cents.

No changes were made to turkey production or trade estimates.

USDA lowered its 2017 average turkey price forecast to a range of $1.04 to $1.10 per pound from last month’s $1.05 to $1.13 per pound.

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