Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 3/9/17


USDA raised its expectations for total U.S. meat production for 2017, as higher forecast beef production more than offsets lower forecast pork and turkey production.

Beef
In the agency’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA raised its first-quarter beef production based on current slaughter data, and third-quarter production is raised as higher expected first-quarter placements are marketed in the second half of the year.

For full year 2017, beef production is expected to be 26.25 billion pounds, up from 26 billion pounds in the February report.
The January Cattle on Feed report showed higher-than-expected placement numbers in December, implying that larger numbers of fed cattle will be marketed during the spring quarter. This, although carcass weights for the year are forecast lower as feedlot operators are expected to remain current in their marketings.

The forecast for 2017 beef imports is unchanged, but the export forecast is raised on stronger-than-expected export shipments thus far in the quarter. USDA now expects that beef exports will wind up the year at 2.725 billion pounds, up from 2.715 billion in the February report.

Pork
The pork production forecast is slightly lower as a result of lighter carcass weights in the first half of the year. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 30, providing an indication of producer intentions for farrowings in the next two quarters.

Pork imports are lowered for 2017, reflecting larger domestic supplies and limited demand for foreign product. Forecast pork exports are raised on robust international demand and large domestic supplies of pork.

Poultry
The broiler production forecast is unchanged from the previous month, although small changes have been made to 2016 poultry production estimates, reflecting recent data revisions.

For 2017, the turkey production forecast is decreased on slower expected second-half production growth.
No change is made to broiler and turkey trade forecasts.

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