|
Leading North Carolina economic indicators up
Story Date: 3/28/2017
| |
Source: NCSU COLLEGE OF AG & LIFE SCIENCES, 3/28/17
The NCSU INDEX OF NORTH CAROLINA LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (the “Index”), a forecast of the state economy’s direction four to six months ahead, posted a strong gain in February. The Index was up 1.7%, far exceeding the gain in the national index. All components of the Index improved, with the strongest jumps occurring in building permits and manufacturing hours. The Index’s most recent reading broke out of a narrow range it had hovered within for over a year, suggesting that heightened optimism about the economy has emerged in the state. Some of this optimism is likely based on expected pro-growth policies emerging from Washington. But other optimism is derived from continued population growth – especially in the state’s metro regions – and a general acceleration in the state’s economy during the past two years. If these trends hold, then 2017 may shape up to be the best post-recessionary growth year for North Carolina.
About the Index: The Index is composed of five components: the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)’s Weekly Leading Index (http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/), North Carolina initial claims for unemployment benefits, North Carolina building permits, average weekly hours of work of all North Carolina employees in manufacturing, and average weekly earnings of all North Carolina employees in manufacturing. All data are seasonally-adjusted and modified for differences in prices levels where appropriate. Data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, and ECRI, whose permission to use their Weekly Leading Index is greatly appreciated. All calculations are done by Dr. Michael Walden.
|
|
|
|
