Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 5/10/17


USDA lowered estimates for total red meat and poultry and corn production in 2017 in its latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Beef and pork production is reduced on lighter expected cattle and hog carcass weights. Broiler production is lowered on lower forecast second-quarter production. Turkey production is raised on higher first-quarter slaughter data.

For 2018, USDA red meat and poultry production is projected higher than 2017 on increased livestock and poultry production.

Beef
Cattle placements during the second half of 2017 and early 2018 are forecast higher. These cattle will be slaughtered during 2018, supporting higher beef production next year. Carcass weights are expected to be higher as well.

USDA raised its 2017 beef export forecast as demand is expected to remain strong, and raised its beef import forecast on recent trade data for the first quarter.

The 2017 cattle price forecast is raised on recent price strength and expectations that demand will remain relatively firm through the year.

For 2018, larger beef supplies and lower prices are expected to support stronger U.S. beef exports. Beef imports are forecast higher as supplies of domestic processing-grade beef remain relatively tight and supplies of beef increase in key exporting countries.

Cattle prices for 2018 are forecast to fall as cattle supplies are expected to increase.

Pork
Pork production in 2017 is reduced on lighter expected hog carcass weights.
The 2017 pork export forecast is raised as demand is expected to remain strong.
The 2017 hog price forecast is raised, also on recent price strength and expectations that demand will remain relatively firm through the year.

For 2018, pork production is forecast higher on expected increased farrowings and continued gains in sow productivity.

Pork exports also are forecast to increase as expanding supplies and competitive prices support demand for U.S. pork. U.S. pork imports are forecast to decline as domestic supplies are expected to pressure prices.

Hog prices for 2018 are forecast to decline relative to 2017 as hog supplies are expected to increase.

Poultry
Broiler production in 2017 is lowered on lower forecast second-quarter production, while turkey production is raised on higher first-quarter slaughter data.

Changes to the 2017 poultry trade forecast reflect first quarter data.

The broiler price forecast for 2017 is increased as second quarter prices are raised due to recent price strength. Turkey prices are forecast lower for the remainder of the year as relatively large supplies pressure prices.

Higher broiler and egg production projected for 2018 reflects expanded production in response to moderate feed prices and relatively strong 2017 prices. Turkey production is forecast higher as demand strengthens.

For 2018, broiler and turkey exports are forecast higher on expected continued gains in foreign demand.

The 2018 broiler price is forecast lower, as production increases and supplies of competing meats are higher. Turkey  prices are forecast to increase on increased demand.

Corn
Meanwhile, the U.S. feed grain outlook for 2017/18 is for lower production, lower domestic use, lower exports and lower ending stocks.

The corn crop is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, down from last year’s record high and just about in line with analysts’ pre-report estimates, with a lower forecast area and yield. The yield projection of 170.7 bushels per acre was also more or less aligned with analysts’ expectations.

Corn planting is a bit behind last year and the five-year average, according to USDA’s latest Crop Progress report.

The smaller corn crop is partly offset by the largest projected beginning stocks since 1988/89, leaving total corn supplies down from a year ago but still the second highest on record.

Total U.S. corn use in 2017/18 is forecast to decline 2 percent from a year ago as a slight increase in domestic use is more than offset by lower exports.

The season-average farm price is projected at $3.00 to $3.80 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint from 2016/17.

Soybeans
The 2017/18 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks.

The soybean crop is projected at 4,255 million bushels, on par with pre-report estimates and down 52 million from last year’s record crop, with a forecast lower trend yield more than offsetting higher harvested area. With sharply higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 4,715 million bushels, up 4 percent from 2016/17. 

U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected at 480 million bushels, up 45 million from the revised 2016/17 forecast. Pre-report analyst expectations were 584 million bushels, or a range of betwen 420 million and 759 million bushels.

The 2017/18 U.S. season-average soybean price range is forecast at $8.30 to $10.30 per bushel compared with $9.55 per bushel in 2016/17. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 to $335 per short ton, compared with $320 per ton for 2016/17.

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