Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 7/12/17

USDA raised its forecast for 2017 red meat and poultry production from last month as higher forecast beef and broiler production more than offset declines in pork and turkey production, according to its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Beef
The beef production forecast for 2017 is raised on both higher cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights. However, USDA lowered its beef production forecast for 2018 on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter in the first part of next year.

The beef import forecast is raised for 2017 on recent trade data. The beef export forecast is raised as global demand is expected to strengthen during the second half of the year. For 2018, both beef import and export forecasts are raised.
Cattle price forecasts for 2017 are lowered from last month as prices have weakened and fed cattle supplies will remain ample. Forecast 2018 cattle prices are unchanged.

Pork
Forecast pork production is reduced as lower slaughter in mid-2017 more than offsets higher fourth-quarter slaughter. USDA lowered its forecast of carcass weights for the second half of the year.

For 2018, USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers intend to farrow slightly more hogs over the next two quarters, and growth in pigs per litter is expected to remain modest. 

Hog price forecasts are raised for 2017 on strong domestic and export demand. Demand strength is expected to carry over into 2018, and USDA raised its hog price forecasts.

Poultry
USDA raised its broiler production forecast for 2017 slightly on recent production data.
Turkey production is lowered on recent production data and a slow recovery in demand during the second half of the year.

Broiler prices are raised for 2017 on current price strength, while turkey prices are lowered on weak demand. No changes are made for 2018 broiler and turkey price forecasts.

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