Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 8/11/17



The forecast for total meat production in 2017 is raised from last month, as increases in commercial beef and broiler production more than offset declines in pork and turkey production, according to USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Beef
The increase in beef production reflects relatively large cattle placements in the second quarter, which will likely impact fourth quarter cattle slaughter. For 2018, the beef production forecast is raised from the previous month, as expected higher placements in late 2017 and early 2018 result in higher steer and heifer slaughter.

But, for 2017, beef imports also are raised, as higher-than-expected shipments of lean processing beef from Oceania in June are expected to carry into the third quarter. The beef export forecast is lowered from last month on recent trade data and an expected slowdown in global demand for the remainder of 2017. For 2018, the beef import forecast is unchanged from the previous month while exports are lowered slightly.

Fed cattle prices are reduced in 2017 and 2018 as current prices have weakened, and larger expected supplies of fed cattle are expected to pressure prices.

Poultry
Second quarter broiler production is raised slightly based on June production data, but no change is made to future quarters. Forecast turkey production is reduced on a slower-than-expected recovery in demand and relatively poor returns to producers.
Poultry production forecasts for 2018 are unchanged from the previous month. Forecasts for poultry imports are unchanged from a month ago. The broiler export forecast is reduced on weak foreign demand.

The annual broiler price forecast for 2017 is raised, but the price forecast for 2018 is unchanged. The turkey price forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are lowered on slow recovery in demand.

Pork
Pork production is reduced on lower expected slaughter in the third quarter. Pork production forecasts for 2018 are unchanged from the previous month.

Pork imports are raised slightly on recent trade data. The second quarter pork export forecast is adjusted for June data, but the forecast for the remainder of the year is unchanged. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2017 and 2018 on continued strength in demand.

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