Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 9/13/17



USDA lowered its forecast for total meat production in 2017 from last month as decreases in commercial beef and broiler production more than offset increases in pork and turkey production. The agency also reduced its price forecasts for corn and soybeans, indicating livestock producers could pay less to feed their animals.  

Beef
In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA noted second-half beef production forecasts are reduced, reflecting a slower expected marketing pace for fed cattle, although cow slaughter is higher.

For 2018, the beef production forecast is lowered from the previous month as a slower rate of placements during the second half of 2017 is expected to result in reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first half of 2018.

Cattle price forecasts for 2017 are lowered to the $118 to $120 per hundredweight range from $120 to $122 forecast last month. For 2018, USDA reduced its forecast to $111 to $120, down from $112 to $121 forecast last month.

Pork
The 2017 pork production forecast is raised on higher expected carcass weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Sept. 28, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions into early 2018. The forecast for pork production in 2018 is reduced slightly from the previous month.

Barrows and gilts are now expected to average in the $50 to $51 per hundredweight range in 2017, down from $51 to $52 projected last month. USDA left unchanged its 2018 hog price forecast at $46 to $50.

Poultry
The third and fourth quarter broiler production forecasts for 2017 are reduced on hatchery data and the current pace of slaughter. Production forecasts for 2018 and price forecasts for both years remain unchanged.

USDA’s third-quarter turkey production forecast is raised slightly, but no changes are made to the outlying quarter. The turkey price forecast is reduced to a range of 99 cents to $1.01 per pound from last month’s range of 99 cents to $1.02, as slightly higher third-quarter turkey prices are more than offset by expected declines in the fourth quarter. The 2018 price forecast is unchanged. 

Corn
The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents on both ends to a range of $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel.

USDA raised its corn production forecast by 32 million bushels to 14.184 billion bushels. The larger crop more than offsets a small decline in beginning stocks due to updated use estimates for 2016/17. Feed and residual use for 2017/18 is raised 25 million bushels, with a larger crop and lower expected prices.

Corn used for ethanol for 2017/18 is projected down 25 million bushels at 5.475 billion, based on observed usage during 2016/17 and expectations of lower exports.

Soybeans
The 2017/18 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.35 to $10.05 per bushel, down 10 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are also lower at $290 to $330 per short ton from last month’s range of $295 to $335. 

Soybean production is projected at a record 4.431 billion bushels, up 50 million on a higher yield forecast. Soybean supplies are raised, with higher production only partly offset by lower beginning stocks. With increased supplies and lower prices, soybean exports are raised to 2.25 billion bushels, leaving ending stocks unchanged.