Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 10/12/17



USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) estimates project a slightly larger corn crop than was expected the month before and makes no changes in the average price for corn and soybeans in the 2017-18 period.

Corn
The U.S. corn outlook for 2017-18 is for larger production, increased feed and residual use, and nearly unchanged ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.28 billion bushels, up 96 million from the prior month. The outlook represents a 6 percent decrease from last year but, if realized, will be the second highest yield and production on record for the United States.

Corn supplies are higher, and projected feed and residual use is increased 25 million bushels. With supply and use changes essentially offsetting, corn ending stocks are up just 5 million bushels from last month.

The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel.
Meanwhile, foreign corn production is forecast higher, with the largest reductions for Russia, Ukraine, Ethiopia, and Tanzania more than offset by increases for a number of countries including Nigeria, Turkey and Mozambique.

Corn exports are raised for Mexico and Argentina, with largely offsetting reductions for Russia and Ukraine. Projected 2017-18 food, seed and industrial use for corn in China is raised based on recent trade data indicating a higher-than-expected level of corn product exports. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2017-18 are down from last month, mostly reflecting declines for China and Mexico that are only partially offset by increases for Argentina and Turkey. Global corn stocks, at 201 million, are down 1.5 million from last month.

Soybeans
Soybean production is forecast at 4.431 billion bushels, nearly unchanged from last month with higher harvested area offsetting lower yields. Harvested area is projected at a record 89.5 million acres, up 0.8 million. The soybean yield is forecast at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels.

With lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2017-18 are projected down 44 million bushels and ending stocks are projected at 430 million bushels. If realized, ending stocks relative to use would be the highest since 2006-07.

The 2017-18 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.35 to $10.05 per bushel, unchanged from last month.
Global soybean production is projected down 0.6 million tons to 347.9 million on lower forecasts for Russia and Ukraine. Higher production for China and Mexico is partly offsetting.

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