Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 10/13/17



The forecast for 2017 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher broiler and turkey production more than offset slightly lower beef and pork production, according to USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
For 2018, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month as higher expected beef and pork production offset declines in turkey production.

Beef
Beef production is reduced from the previous month largely due to lower expected fourth-quarter carcass weights.

Beef production for 2018 is little changed from last month, although first half production is lowered as pasture conditions are expected to slow the pace of placements in the latter part of 2017. However, heavier carcass weights are expected.

Beef import forecasts are raised in 2017 and 2018 on increased shipments of processing beef from Asia and Australia. The 2017 and 2018 beef export forecasts are raised on strong demand from a number of key trading partners.

Pork
The 2017 pork production forecast is lowered on smaller-than-expected third-quarter commercial hog slaughter, which more than offset higher expected second-half carcass weights.

For 2018, pork production is raised from last month due to higher slaughter. In the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released Sept. 28, producers indicated they farrowed about 2 percent more sows in June-August and intend to farrow approximately 1 percent more sows over each of the next two quarters. With larger pig crops in the second half of 2017 and into 2018, pork production is forecast higher.

Pork imports for 2017 and 2018 are raised from last month. The 2017 pork export forecast is lowered from the previous month on recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2018 export forecast.

Poultry
The 2017 broiler production forecast is raised on expectations of increased slaughter later in the year based on hatchery data. The 2017 turkey forecast is increased as higher third-quarter slaughter more than offsets expected declines in fourth-quarter slaughter.

The 2018 broiler and egg production forecast is unchanged from the previous month. Turkey production forecasts for 2018 are lowered on slow recovery in demand, which is expected to dampen the pace of expansion.

Annual broiler and turkey export forecasts are unchanged.

Livestock
• Cattle price forecasts are unchanged for 2017 and 2018.
• Hog price forecasts are lowered for the last quarter of 2017 and into 2018 on larger supplies and pressure from abundant supplies of red meat and poultry.
• The annual broiler price is forecast slightly lower for 2017 but is unchanged for 2018.
• Turkey price forecasts are lowered in 2017 and 2018 on slow recovery in demand.

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