Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 11/7/17

The ag lobby long thought that the president's trade politics would spare farmers and others in the industry. After all, it was the rural and red-state turnout that helped propel Donald Trump to victory a year ago. Now, with Trump threatening to issue a formal intent to withdraw from the deal, groups tell Pro Trade's Adam Behsudi that their pleas to save the pact are barely registering with a president intent on its destruction.

A sense of betrayal: The U.S. exports nearly $18 billion of agriculture goods to Mexico, and exports are a main profit driver for the industry. But such numbers and statistics seem lost on the main negotiators in the administration.

"It's been difficult, to be honest with you, because even though we have a lot of support from people within the Trump administration, President Trump has made statements that obviously have caused us a lot of concern," said Kent Bacus, the international trade director at the National Cattlemen's Beef Association.

Some self-inflicted wounds: Now that the withdrawal of NAFTA seems like a real likelihood rather than a bargaining tactic, there's also a growing recognition that the ag industry may have failed to coordinate an effective strategy to counter the threat that Trump posed to the trade pact.

"The importance of trade to economic growth in the food and ag sector is so fundamental that there tends to be an assumption that everyone understands that," one association leader told POLITICO. 

Perdue's political capital: Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue was hailed as NAFTA's savior when he persuaded Trump to stand down from issuing a withdrawal notice in April. But farmers are figuring that he may need to save his political capital to help protect the farm bill from being gutted by conservative groups and deficit hawks.

The only solution may be a grass-roots campaign in which farmers, ranchers and other voters stand up and demand action, said Gordon Stoner, a fourth-generation Montana wheat farmer who leads the National Association of Wheat Growers.
"We need a groundswell from the country, quite honestly, from folks that put this administration in place: rural America tipped the scale and placed Trump in office," he said.