Source:  FARM DOC DAILY, UNIV. OF ILLINOIS, 11/13/17



The USDA's Crop Production report released on November 9 reported an unexpectedly large corn yield increase for the 2017 crop. Corn prices suffered a moderate decline following the report release considering the magnitude of the yield increase. Corn prices will struggle to find support due to the ample supply available during the 2017-18 marketing year.

The United States corn production forecast increased to 14.6 billion bushels, up almost 300 million bushels over the October forecast. At 175.4 bushels per acre, the yield increase of 3.6 bushels came in well above pre-report estimates and set a new yield record. An increase in yield close to this magnitude between the October and November production reports last occurred in 1996 (3.5 bushels) and 1992 (5.5 bushels). In each of those instances, the final yield estimate increased from the November forecast which does not bode well for current supply scenarios.

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