Source: MEATINGPLACE, 1/15/18

USDA lowered from last month its forecast for total red meat and poultry production in 2017 but raised its 2018 projection.

In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the agency said lower beef and turkey production estimates will more than offset high pork and broiler production in 2017 to lower the total number. For 2018, higher expected pork, beef and broiler production will offset lower turkey production to raise the total figure.

Beef

The 2018 beef production forecast is raised as higher cattle placements in late 2017 are expected to result in higher fed cattle marketings and slaughter in the first half of 2018. Average carcass weights are also expected to be heavier.

Beef imports are increased for 2017 on increased shipments from Oceania. No change is made to exports.

For 2018, the cattle price is raised on early-year price strength.

Pork

The pork production forecast for 2018 is raised. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated the September-November pig crop was 3 percent above 2016 which supports a higher first half production forecast. The report also indicated producers expect to expand farrowings about 3 percent in the first half of the year which, coupled with continued gains in pigs per litter, supports higher second-half production.

Pork exports for 2017 are raised reflecting the pace of trade to date but no change is made to pork imports.

The first-quarter 2018 hog price forecast also is raised on recent price strength and firm demand.

Poultry

Forecast broiler production is raised for 2018 on favorable returns. Turkey production is reduced based on continued weak demand.

Broiler imports and exports are raised for 2017. For 2018, livestock and broiler forecasts remain unchanged from last month.

First and second quarter broiler price forecasts are raised as well on recent price strength and continued strong demand. Turkey price forecasts for 2018 are lowered on recent price movements and continued weakness in demand.

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