Source:Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 1/23/18


The United States, Canada and Mexico will begin Tuesday in Montreal a sixth round of talks aimed at renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement as President Donald Trump issued a fresh threat to scrap the deal altogether and elections here and abroad approach.

Observers are calling the sixth of seven scheduled NAFTA rounds crucial to the potential success of the renegotiation because major issues, such as U.S. demands on autos and a five-year sunset clause, remain unsettled as the effort nears its end. Talks are supposed to conclude by the end of March to avoid conflict with Mexico’s general elections. Meanwhile, U.S. midterm elections take place this fall.

In an interview with Reuters last week, Trump, who campaigned partly on dismantling what he called bad trade deals, was quoted as saying, “A lot of people don’t realize how good it would be to terminate NAFTA because the way you’re going to make the best deal is to terminate NAFTA.”

However, in other interviews Trump also has said he might extend the deadline for talks in light of Mexico’s elections. And in the Reuters interview last week, he acknowledged how unpopular a decision to withdraw from NAFTA might be with “a lot of people.”

Among those are agricultural leaders and industry groups. For example, Quebec’s largest agri-food cooperative, La Coop Fédérée, warned on Friday that abandoning NAFTA would cut Canadian Gross Domestic Product by between C$4.6 billion and C$6.3 billion and threaten between 58,000 and 80,000 jobs in Canada.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue has urged the president not to withdraw from the pact, pointing out how fruitful the 24-year-old pact has been for his constituency, including the meat and poultry industries. Perdue said, also in an interview last week, that the president has come to learn that NAFTA has benefits for the United States.

Canadian and Mexican leaders, meanwhile, are said to be entering the sixth round of talks with open minds and some willingness to soften on some of the sticking points.

What will ultimately happen with NAFTA is up for debate. A council advising Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland on the treaty believes Washington is most likely going to pull out.

Council member Rona Ambrose was quoted by CTV television as saying, “There is still a shred of optimism,” but the consensus among the council members is that “it’s not if, it’s when [Trump is] going to pull the plug.”

However, Reuters has reported that “a large majority” of economists that the media outlet polled believe that NAFTA will be “renegotiated successfully with only marginal changes.”

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