Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 1/25/18


Production increases in the U.S. beef, pork and broiler industries expected in 2018 will likely lead to record quantities of red meat and poultry available to U.S. consumers, USDA forecast in its latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.  

For 2018, the combined per capita retail disappearance of beef, pork, lamb, mutton, broilers and turkeys is projected to reach 222.8 pounds, up from 216.6 pounds in 2017. The previous record was 221.9 pounds set in 2004, according to a USDA economist.

Red meat and poultry disappearance is calculated as the volume of meat and poultry production that remains for domestic use after subtracting net trade and changes in cold storage volumes. Dividing this residual by the U.S. population yields the per capita quantity used in the domestic market.

USDA projects beef per capita disappearance at 59.4 pounds in 2018, up from 56.8 pounds in 2017 and 55.6 pounds in 2016.

Per capita pork disappearance is projected at 52 pounds in 2018, up from 50.2 pounds in 2017 and 50.1 pounds in 2016

U.S. broiler disappearance is pegged at 92.4 pounds per capita in 2018, up from 90.7 pounds in 2017 and 89.8 pounds in 2016.

Turkey per capita disappearance is forecast at 16.5 pounds, up from 16.4 pounds in 2017, but down from 16.6 pounds in 2016.  

The most important factors driving per capita disappearance this year are projected increases in year-over-year production of beef (up 6.1 percent), pork (up 5.4 percent), and broiler meat (up 2.1 percent).

Per capita disappearance is a supply statistic and does not take account of waste or non-food uses of livestock meat products. It imparts no information about prices, tastes and preferences, and other factors that ultimately determine how much red meat and poultry individual consumers will choose to buy and consume.

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