Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 2/18/18

Leaders of the House and Senate Agriculture committees may not get a farm bill across the finish line by the Sept. 30 deadline. But it will likely pass Congress before the end of the year, agricultural economists and veterans of the process predicted on Tuesday.

"Since this farm bill is predicted to be more evolutionary than revolutionary, I think that diminishes the chances of an extension," said Don Villwock, a corn, seed soybean and popcorn grower in southwestern Indiana, and former 14-year president of the state's Farm Bureau. 

During a panel discussion hosted by the Farm Foundation, Villwock noted that a lot of the changes to the farm bill being considered were "tweaks" to current policy rather than a major overhaul, unlike the 2014 iteration that took an extra two years to negotiate.

Still, the panelists said, major political and policy issues could complicate, derail or delay the process:

- Finding money for "orphan" programs: There are nearly 40 programs in the 2014 farm bill that don't have a spending baseline beyond Sept. 30. That means their price tags aren't reflected in the Congressional Budget Office's updated score of the law, said Craig Jagger, a former chief economist for the House Agriculture Committee and agriculture analyst at CBO. 
Therefore, lawmakers will have to find additional funding for these programs. Their costs total about $2.8 billion over the life of the 2014 farm bill and pay for initiatives like watershed rehabilitation, incentives for converting crops into biofuel, and promotional activities for farmers markets and organic products.

- The unpredictability of This Town: "If the administration and [congressional] leadership brings up immigration reform, welfare reform, those are going to be major pushes that are difficult, and not good for getting a farm bill done," said Joe Outlaw, a professor and extension economist at Texas A&M University. He added that trade also could divert the attention of lawmakers, including any uncertainties over NAFTA and U.S.-China relations.