Source: MEATINGPLACE, 2/16/18

The latest World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) value of 102.3 is little changed from the previous reading of 102.2 in November last year, indicating continued solid trade volume growth in the first quarter of 2018 following robust expansion in 2017.

The World Trade Organization's WTOI is designed to provide "real time" information on the trajectory of world trade relative to recent trends. The latest WTOI was released this week.  

The data suggest that quarterly merchandise trade volume growth may moderate going forward while still remaining above trend.

Component indices for container port throughput and air freight are firmly above trend, indicating strong current trade growth. Meanwhile, the forward-looking export orders index has reached its highest level since 2011, pointing to sustained recovery in trade flows in the first half of 2018.

Weaker results for automotive products, electronics and agricultural raw materials, however, could indicate weakening consumer confidence. The results are somewhat stronger than the WTO's most recent trade forecast issued on Sept. 21, 2017, which predicted merchandise trade volume growth of 3.6 percent for 2017 and 3.2 percent for 2018.

Index readings of 100 indicate growth in line with medium-term trends; readings greater than 100 suggest above trend growth, while those below 100 indicate the opposite. The direction of change reflects momentum compared the previous month.

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