Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 2/19/18


Per capita use of red meat (beef and pork) and poultry (broilers and turkey) is projected to rise from roughly 218 pounds per person in 2017 to 222 pounds by 2027, according to the ten-year projections in a new report by USDA’s Economic Research Service. 

This represents a return to pre-Great Recession availability levels, marking a rebound from the low of 199 pounds per person observed in 2014.

Beef
Per capita beef disappearance is expected to increase in the first years of the projection period, followed by a mild downward trend in the later years, flattening out by the end of the decade at levels higher than those seen in the beginning of the projection period.

Imports exceed exports through the projection period, as processing beef demand remains relatively strong in the United States. Overall, per capita disappearance increases to 59 pounds per capita, up from 57 pounds in 2017.

Pork
Pork production is expected to continue to grow and per capita pork disappearance to rise modestly through 2019, after which per capita is projected to flatten out at nearly 52 pounds per year.

Throughout the projection period, pork exports continue to dominate imports, and pork production gains are expected to be sufficient to accommodate both the widening trade surplus as well as increased domestic demand, which is due largely to population growth.

Poultry
Poultry production is projected to rise over the projection period.  Broiler per capita disappearance is expected to follow suit for the majority of the upcoming decade, with a mild decline in the last couple years of the decade, ending at just over 92 pounds per person.

Per capita turkey disappearance is expected to decline slowly over the decade, dropping to 15.7 pounds per person from 16.6 in 2016.

Red meat and poultry disappearance is calculated as the volume of meat and poultry production that remains for domestic use after subtracting net trade and changes in cold storage volumes. Dividing this residual by the U.S. population yields the per capita quantity used in the domestic market.

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