Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 2/23/18

As many farmers are acutely aware, the yearslong downturn in crop prices is not expected to reverse anytime soon. But the coming farm bill could help cushion the blow to farm income, which is forecast to fall in 2018 to its lowest level in 12 years, according to USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson. Provisions such as commodity supports and crop insurance may be a lifeboat to farmers facing years of struggling profits.

"Today's ag economy is also different from when Congress debated the last farm bill, when farm income was reaching historic levels, peaking in 2013 at more than $120 billion," Johansson said Thursday during the annual USDA Outlook Forum, which continues Friday. "Today, many producers are in a different situation. Net farm income looks likely to remain more than 50 percent in real terms below its 2013 peak for a third year in a row." 

Numbers crunch: The department's first agriculture forecast of 2018, released earlier this month, predicted that net farm income would decline 6.7 percent this year to $59.5 billion, the lowest since 2006 when not adjusted for inflation and lowest since 2002 when adjusted.

Ability to bounce back: USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said farmers were resilient in tough times, and the department has been working with Congress to draft a farm bill that meets their needs. "One of our principles is that the farm bill must make and help what's most helpful -- manage risk," Perdue said Thursday. "That's just a given. That's a no-brainer." 

Among other statistics shared:
- Grocery store prices are expected to rise about 0.5 to 1 percent this year, according to Annmarie Kuhns, an USDA economist in the Food Economics Division. Shoppers will see poultry, dairy, fruits and vegetables prices rising the most, as much as 4 percent, she said. Prices for fats and oils, on the other hand, are expected to drop by as much as 2.5 percent.

- Last year was big for agriculture mergers and acquisitions - with 591 transactions taking place. That trend is expected to continue into 2018, said Brian Todd, president of the Food Institute. "Many companies are out there buying innovation. They're looking for new products to add to their portfolio," he said, pointing to the example of Unilever's purchase of Sir Kensington's, which makes premium condiments like vegan mayo. 

- Economists will go into more depth on specific commodities on Friday but prices for some goods, like corn and wheat, are forecast to increase slightly in the 2018-19 season, despite higher global stocks.