Source: Susan Kelly, MEATINGPLACE, 3/9/18



USDA on Thursday reduced slightly its 2018 forecast for total red meat and poultry production from last month, expecting lower beef production to more than offset higher pork and turkey production.

Broiler production is unchanged, the agency said in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. USDA sees lower first-quarter cattle slaughter and weights, offset somewhat by higher fed beef production in the second quarter and higher non-fed beef production in the first half of the year.

Pork production is lowered for the first half of the year on a slower slaughter pace, but second-half production is increased due to higher expected carcass weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 29, providing an indication of producer intentions for farrowings in the next two quarters.

Exports, prices
For 2018, beef imports are raised due to robust early-year demand. No change is made to beef exports. The pork import forecast is raised on expected demand strength. Pork export forecasts are also raised from last month. Broiler exports are unchanged, but turkey exports are reduced slightly on weaker expected demand in key markets.

Cattle and hog prices for the first quarter are raised from last month on current price movements. The second-quarter broiler price forecast is raised from last month on stronger expected demand. Turkey prices are reduced through the third quarter on the continued slow recovery in demand.

Corn, ethanol, soybeans
This month’s 2017-18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger exports and increased corn used to produce ethanol. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5.575 billion based in part on the pace of weekly ethanol production during February. Ending stocks are lowered 225 million bushels to 2.127 billion, which would be down from the prior marketing year. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is narrowed 10 cents on the low end to $3.15 to $3.55 per bushel, with the midpoint up 5 cents to $3.35 per bushel. 

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2017-18 include higher crush, lower exports, and increased ending stocks compared with last month’s report. The season-average soybean price range forecast of $9.00 to $9.60 per bushel is unchanged at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $325 to $355 per short ton, up $20.00 at the midpoint.

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