Source: Susan Kelly, MEATINGPLACE, 5/10/18


In its first assessment of world supply-and-demand prospects for 2018-19 crops and U.S. grain prices, USDA said today its U.S. feed-grain outlook is for lower production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks.

With beginning stocks down from a year ago, total corn supplies at 16.3 billion bushels, if realized, would be down 675 million from the prior year, USDA said in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

With total U.S. corn supply falling faster than use, 2018-19 U.S. ending stocks are down 500 million bushels from last year to 1.7 billion. The season-average farm price for corn is projected at $3.30 to $4.30 per bushel, up 40 cents at the midpoint from 2017-18.

Total U.S. corn use in 2018-19 is forecast to decline modestly from a year ago on reductions in domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is projected to rise 75 million bushels to 7.1 billion, driven by an expected increase in the amount of corn used to produce ethanol for fuel and growth in non-ethanol FSI.

U.S. corn exports are forecast to decline 125 million bushels in 2018-19. The global coarse grain outlook for 2018-19 is for higher production, increased use and lower ending stocks. Corn production is forecast up from a year ago, with the largest increases for China, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and Russia. Global corn use is expected to grow 2 percent.

Global corn ending stocks are down 35.8 million tons from a year ago, and if realized would be the lowest since 2012-13. For China, total corn supply is down 11 million tons in 2018-19, as larger production and imports are more than offset by lower beginning stocks.

Soybeans
The 2018-19 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports and lower ending stocks compared to 2017-18. The soybean crop is projected at 4.28 billion bushels, down 112 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yields.

With higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 4.835 billion bushels, up 2 percent from 2017-18. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2018-19 is forecast at 127.3 million tons, down 3.7 million from 2017-18, mainly on lower soybean production.

The U.S. soybean crush for 2018-19 is projected at 1.995 billion bushels, up slightly from the revised 2017-18 forecast, with higher soybean meal disappearance offset by lower projected soybean meal exports. Soybean meal exports are forecast lower as Argentina’s export share recovers from the effects of drought in 2017-18.

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