Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 5/17/18

It's May 17, and there's no NAFTA deal in sight. Divisions among negotiators from the U.S., Mexico and Canada on complex issues are driving a stake through the heart of President Donald Trump's goal of signing a new agreement into law this year, Pro Trade's Megan Cassella reports.

What this means: If there is no deal by the end of the month, the Trump administration has to decide whether to impose steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Such a move would scramble U.S. supply chains and incite retaliatory tariffs — and again, farmers and ag producers could bear the brunt of the fallout.

Another missed deadline: House Speaker Paul Ryan reiterated Wednesday that the administration would need to notify Congress this week if it wants the current Republican-led Congress to vote on the deal by the end of the year under so-called fast-track legislation.

But with most issues remaining intractable, U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer has in recent days said the U.S. is not going to be bound by an arbitrary clock in negotiations. In a meeting with House Democrats this week, Lighthizer "straight up said that he was more pessimistic than he's been in the past," one source said.

What's next? Ministers are not scheduled to meet again until the end of the month at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's annual ministerial in Paris "unless something happens before then," a source close to the talks told MA. Meanwhile, negotiators are working to wrap up chapters tied to the modernization of the deal, which include topics like environment, energy and financial services.