Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 6/19/18

The early estimates of the cost to farmers were daunting based on Trump's announcement last week that he would slap 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods — but that was before he upped the ante Monday night by ordering an additional 10 percent tariff on $200 billion in Chinese goods in response to Beijing's retaliation. China, in turn, denounced "this practice of extreme pressure and blackmail," and asserted that "If the U.S. side becomes irrational and issues a list, China will have to adopt comprehensive measures combining quantity and quality to make a strong countermeasure."

A numbers rundown: Ben Brown, manager of the College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences at Ohio State University, helped publish a study in May predicting that Ohio farmers would lose 59 percent of their income if a 25 percent tariff were imposed on U.S. soybeans. Brown added in an interview Friday that he was watching to what extent China would purchase its soybeans from other countries, like Brazil and Argentina. He noted that the U.S. has already benefited from the drought in Argentina, giving China one less market from which to buy soybeans. "How much can Brazil fill that gap?" Brown asked. Iowa State University Economist Chad Hart estimated that the state would lose $624 million in soybean sales. Hart added that things look even worse nationwide: Soybeans are now the largest crop planted on an acreage basis.

Just when things started looking up: USDA's Economic Research Service released data in its Livestock, Dairy and Poultry outlook Monday showing the tariffs come at a time when beef exports in April rose to 254 million pounds overall, a 16.1 percent increase over the year before. ERS noted that's the largest monthly year-over-year percentage increase to date this year and it was largely driven by growing exports to South Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, Canada and Japan. Pork exports in April also reached record high levels at 548 million pounds, with the largest amounts ever sent to Mexico and South Korea.

U.S. can handle losses: White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett said Monday that the U.S. economy can absorb these tensions right now because of its strength, Bloomberg reported. "If right in the middle of a financial crisis we added some uncertainty over exactly how are these negotiations going to work out, then it would be pretty harmful then," said Hassett. "But right now the economy has got a lot of on forward momentum."

Then came ZTE: On Monday night, the Senate voted to reimpose the U.S. ban on Chinese telecom giant ZTE, in a rebuke to Trump and his efforts to keep the company afloat, POLITICO's John Hendel reports. Trump could still get his way if the ban is modified during the conference process between the Senate and House. He could also veto the legislation, which would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers to reverse. If the ban on ZTE is reimposed, that could lead to more backlash from China.