Source: USDA'S ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE, 6/18/18


In the context of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, domestic supply is comprised of three components: production, beginning stocks, and imports. U.S. supply of red meats, poultry, eggs, and milk is forecast to grow in 2019 as follows: beef (+2.3 percent), pork (+3.3 percent), lamb (+1.3 percent), broilers (+1.9 percent), turkey (+0.8 percent), eggs1 (+2.1 percent), and milk2 (+0.9 percent). What is driving projected 2019 supply growth? The chart below disaggregates the percentage change in supply for each livestock commodity into its three parts. As can be seen, 2019 supply growth will be largely driven by expected gains in production, particularly for beef, pork, broilers, turkey, eggs, and milk. Increased imports are likely to be an important factor in the expanded supply of lamb as well as to contribute to the increased supply of beef. Larger beginning stock volumes for lamb and turkey are expected to contribute to supply-growth expectations for both commodities. Meanwhile, 2019 beginning stocks of milk are projected to be lower than those of 2018.

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