Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 6/25/18

Fresh off a nail-biting victory in the House, farm bill backers are now anxiously waiting to see how quickly the Senate can follow suit this week.

The Senate plans to vote on a motion to invoke cloture tonight -- a procedural step that paves the way for consideration of the farm bill on the floor.

Grassley's revenge: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is widely expected to put forth an amendment related to his signature farm policy crusade — tightening the rules governing subsidy payments given to farmers. Grassley is coming in hot from the last farm bill when his subsidy limit amendment passed the Senate but ultimately was stripped during conference.

Thune's conservation compromise: Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) has been working behind the scenes with Senate ag leaders to craft an amendment tweaking the Conservation Reserve Program. At the farm bill markup, chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) and ranking member Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) promised Thune that they'd put their heads together to incorporate some of his CRP proposals in a package they all can agree on.

A sign from Mitch: If Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell limits amendments to move things along quickly, you can expect this show to wrap up soon. Of course, the majority leader would like to see his language legalizing hemp make it to the finish line sooner rather than later.

Playing 'what if' in the House: As more folks analyze the House vote, many what if's are being raised. Four House lawmakers didn't show up to vote on Thursday, two Democrats (Reps. Donald Payne (D-N.J.) and Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.)) and two Republicans (Reps. Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.) and Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa)). In such a close vote, just about any combination of those lawmakers showing up could have changed the outcome. Reps. Jeffries and Payne have been chided on Twitter for missing the vote. Payne's spokesman said he was home sick and hadn't been expecting the last-minute vote; Jeffries was attending his son's eighth-grade graduation, his office said.

CONSERVATIVE GROUPS LOSE IN HOUSE FARM BILL PASSAGE: The House's very narrow passage of its version of the farm bill was a loss for many groups, including conservative organizations like Heritage Action, Americans for Prosperity and the R Street Institute. In an interview with POLITICO Influence, Caroline Kitchens, federal affairs manager at the R Street Institute, attributed the House's passage of the bill to "political dynamics and gamesmanship." She noted that many Republicans viewed the bill as an opportunity to pass a small slice of welfare reform. In addition, she said even though Freedom Caucus members didn't necessarily like the bill, "they decided that getting a vote on immigration was more of a priority." Brent Gardner, chief government affairs officer at Americans for Prosperity, agreed that outside forces influenced the House's passage of the bill. "The farm bill deserves to have its own day," he said.

—Moving forward, the R Street Institute will push for an open amendment process on the Senate floor, Kitchens said. "We have a pretty well-organized coalition of conservative, taxpayer and environmental groups, so it's a really broad coalition of people on the left and the right," she said. "We're hoping to get some reform in the Senate version of the bill."

— But the House passage of the bill was a big win for farm groups. "Members of the House recognized the serious economic challenges facing farmers and ranchers across the country" American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said in a statement.