Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 6/25/18



Total supplies of red meat and poultry reported in USDA’s May 31 Cold Storage report neared record levels, while analysts ponder the eventual impacts of recently imposed retaliatory tariffs.

The main question now is the impact that China’s and Mexico’s tariffs will have on U.S. pork, according to analysts with the Daily Livestock Report (DLR), published by the Steiner Consulting Group. 

“The effect of tariffs on US pork has only started to be felt and will only get worse from here,” the analysts said, noting that US pork exports to China were some 1,000 metric tons per week in March, then 300 metric tons in May, and last week they dropped to zero. 

Total frozen pork supplies were up 6 percent from last year, but were down 2 percent from the previous month. The end-of-May ham supply rose 24 percent from the previous month, and, although in line with seasonal trends and historical levels, could rise even more depending on the extent to which Mexico’s tariffs cause trade disruptions, DLR analysts noted.

Stocks of pork bellies were up 94 percent from last year but down 5 percent from last month and still 3 percent less than the 5-year average. With robust supplies expected in the fall, processors will likely deplete inventories in July and August. 

Beef
Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 13 percent over last year and were down 1 percent from the previous month. Higher beef exports helped the year-over-year increase.

Poultry
Total frozen poultry supplies rose 7 percent from a year ago and 4 percent from the previous month. Chicken supplies jumped 12 percent year on year and were up 1 percent from last month. 

“Breast meat supplies remain burdensome at 187.2 million pounds, 27 percent higher than the five year average,” DLR noted.
Turkey supplies rose 1 percent from last year and 8 percent from last month.

Total pounds of turkey in freezers were up 8 percent from last month and up 1 percent from May 31, 2017.

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