Meat stocks dive deeper than Dow
Story Date: 9/30/2008

  Source:  Janie Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE.COM, 9/30/08


As Wall Street clocked its largest one-day point drop ever, stocks of major protein producers like Smithfield, Pilgrim's Pride and Tyson fell even further.

At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had plummeted 777 points, or 7 percent, while the Nasdaq fell 9 percent and the S&P 500 fell nearly 9 percent.

At the same time, Pilgrim's Pride shares fell over 21 percent on the day, even as the company announced it had reached a 30-day covenant waiver from its creditors.

Smithfield Foods shares fell 16 percent on the day, even after affirming its credit and financial and liquidity position in a statement aimed and easing Wall Street rumors and concerns that had sent the stock on a roller-coaster ride on Friday.

And Tyson Foods shares fell over 11 percent on the day with no apparent company-specific news that would have nudged the stock one way or the other.
"We believe that this is a good time to buy Smithfield Foods shares for either very short-term oriented investors looking to capitalize on the near-term catalyst of the company's improved liquidity position from the close of the beef business or longer-term value oriented buyers," Stephens Inc. analyst Farha Aslam wrote in a note to investors on Monday.

The operative phrase there may be "long term", however, as Aslam noted, "Long-term value investors must be patient as it could take 12-18 months for hog production profits to return to mid-cycle levels of $12 per hog – upon which our $3 normalized EPS estimate is based."

BMO Capital Markets analyst Kenneth Zaslow suggested in a note to investors that banks may need to put together a type of rescue package for companies such as Pilgrim's Pride, or even the whole poultry industry to help them reconfigure debt, sell assets and tap into some type of liquidity fund.

Zaslow decreased his 2008 earnings forecast for Pilgrims Pride to a loss of $4.98 per share from an earlier projection the company would lose $3.33 per share on the year. For 2009, he dropped his earning forecast to 3 cents per share from an earlier forecast it would earn $1.03 per share.

Bucking the trend was Hormel Foods, which slipped only 13 cents, or 0.36 percent, making it one of the best performers of the day. ConAgra Foods slipped by less than 2 percent, while Sara Lee fell 5 percent and Kraft shares slipped by just over 3 percent on the day.

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