Source: Susan Kelly, MEATINGPLACE, 7/2/18/

The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) has prepared a detailed analysis of expected losses to the U.S. pork and beef industries from China’s retaliatory duties on U.S. products. 

The combination of lost market share and lower unit export values means an expected loss in U.S. pork variety meat exports of more than $100 million from May 2018 through December 2018, or about $150 million when projected over a 12- month period, USMEF predicted.

Lower values for key China variety meat items could translate into industry losses of around $6.80 per head, USMEF forecast. For May-December, this translates to losses of about $580 million. Over a 12-month period, losses could reach $860 million.
Adding in estimated losses for hams and picnics, the key muscle cut exports to China, could bring losses to more than $9.00 per head, or $770 million in May-December, with full-year losses reaching $1.14 billion, according to the report.

Beef
China’s additional 25 percent duty will stifle U.S. beef exports to China and will severely limit exports in the remainder of this year, meaning export losses of more than $30 million, USMEF said.

“But the real impact is the lost opportunities … for export growth over the next couple of years,” USMEF said. Progress had recently been made in expanding the list of plants eligible to export to China and U.S. officials are working on gaining eligibility for additional beef items. With these access improvements, USMEF had estimated exports could grow from the (pretariff) 2018 value of $70 million to $430 million by 2020.

“In short, lost export opportunities over the next couple of years will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars if the tariffs are not quickly returned to the normal 12 percent,” USMEF said.

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