Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 7/11/18


Food security in 76 low-income and developing economies worldwide is expected to improve notably between 2018 and 2028: The share of the food-insecure population is expected to fall to 10.4 percent in 10 years from 21.1 percent now; the number of food-insecure people is projected to fall to 446 million from 782 million in the next decade; and the food gap — the amount of food required to allow all food-insecure people to reach the caloric target of 2,100 calories per person per day — is projected to decline to 24 million tons from 36 million tons.

This, according to a new report from USDA’s Economic Research Service, “International Food Security Assessment, 2018-2028.” 
In an executive summary, researchers note that gains in food security is expected to vary across regions. In Asia, where income growth is strong, the share of the food-insecure population is projected to decline to 4.7 percent in 2028 from 16.6 percent in 2018. The challenge is greater in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region where 35.3 percent of its population food insecure today, and 24 percent are expected to be still food insecure in 2028.

In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), the share of the population that is food insecure is projected to drop to 9.5 percent in 2028 from 19.5 percent in 2018. Food security is also projected to improve for North Africa, the most food-secure region in the study. There, the share of the population that is food insecure falls to 2.3 percent in 2028 from 4.9 percent in 2018, the report predicts.

The ERS demand-oriented International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model projects food consumption (food demand) and food gaps in 76 low- and middle-income countries through 2028. Food security is evaluated for each country by estimating the share of the population unable to reach a caloric target of 2,100 calories per person per day.

Average per capita food consumption data are from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Balance Sheets and FAO’s cereal balances. Observed domestic prices are from FAO’s Global Information Early Warning System (GIEWS) database. Tariff data are from the World Bank World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Incomes, exchange rates and Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) are from the ERS International Macroeconomic Dataset. World prices are from USDA’s Agricultural Projections to 2027.

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