Source: Susan Kelly, MEATINGPLACE, 7/13/18



USDA increased its 2018 forecast for red meat and poultry production and surprised some industry observers by leaving its pork export outlook unchanged in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The beef production forecast is raised from last month on higher expected cow slaughter in the third quarter. Forecast pork production is also raised, as hog slaughter is expected to pick up pace in the second half and more than offset lower second-quarter slaughter.

Second and third-quarter broiler production is raised on recent hatchery data and expected heavier bird weights. Turkey production is raised slightly.

For 2019, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised as increases in pork and broiler production more than offset expected declines in beef production. Forecast beef production is reduced on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter the first half of the year.

Exports
The 2018 beef export forecast is raised on continued strong exports to Asia. The 2019 beef export forecast is also raised.
Pork trade forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged from the previous month. Lower pork product prices are expected to help offset increased competition in key markets in 2019, the WASDE report said. No change was made to 2018 and 2019 broiler and turkey export forecasts.

Analysts at the Daily Livestock Report said the government appeared to adjust numbers to reflect May export figures, with no changes to longer-term forecasts. The WASDE report had been expected to include the impact of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products.

"It is unclear whether this implies that no impact is anticipated for pork exports or that is too early to know the trade impact," the DLR analysts wrote.

Read the full WASDE report here.

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