Source: Susan Kelly, MEATINGPLACE, 8/13/18


USDA has increased its forecast for total meat production in 2018 as higher broiler production more than offset declines in beef, pork and turkey, the agency said.

Second-quarter broiler production is raised on June production data, while third-quarter production is raised on hatchery data and expected growth in bird weights, USDA said Friday in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

2018 beef
The decline in beef production largely reflects a slower pace of marketings in the third quarter. Cow slaughter is raised, but recent carcass weight data and a larger proportion of cows in the slaughter mix led to a reduction in expected carcass weights during the second half of the year, USDA said.

2018 pork, poultry
Pork production is reduced on a slower expected pace of slaughter during the last half of the year. Forecast turkey production is reduced slightly from the previous month on June production data.

Production up for 2019
For 2019, the pork production forecast is raised from the previous month on higher expected hog slaughter in the first part of the year and heavier carcass weights. The beef production forecast is raised on heavier carcass weights in 2019.
Broiler production is also raised for 2019 on lower forecast feed prices. The annual turkey production forecasts for 2019 are unchanged from the previous month.

Imports and exports
For 2018, second-quarter beef imports are reduced on June trade data; the forecasts for the outlying quarters and into 2019 are unchanged. Beef export forecasts are raised for both 2018 and 2019 on expectations of continued strong global demand.

Second-quarter pork imports for 2018 are lowered slightly on recent trade data, but the forecasts for the outlying quarters and into 2019 are unchanged. The second-quarter pork export forecast is adjusted for June data; the forecast for the remainder of 2018 and into 2019 is reduced slightly on expected competition in several markets.

Broiler and turkey export forecasts are reduced for both 2018 and 2019 on weaker-than-expected demand.

Prices
Cattle and turkey price forecasts are unchanged at the midpoint for 2018 and 2019. Hog and broiler price forecasts are lowered for 2018 and 2019.

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