Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 8/21/18

Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo returns to Washington today for more talks with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer as buzz continues to build that the two officials could reach a preliminary agreement on U.S.-Mexico NAFTA issues this week.

Negotiators from the U.S. and Mexico have been meeting consistently for the past month in an effort to resolve the remaining thorny topics between the two countries by the end of the month. But even if the high-level talks result in a breakthrough on U.S.-Mexico issues, Canada is still not at the negotiating table, and there are numerous questions surrounding how negotiators would be able to conclude a trilateral deal in a few days even if Canada returns to the fold.

Where's Canada? "Canada will most likely — but let's say most likely in italics — be back this week," a source close to the talks told our friends at Morning Trade, adding that it remains to be seen how Canada will respond to the bilateral solutions the U.S. and Mexico have found on certain issues.

Once Canada is at the table, negotiators from the three countries will need to reach agreement on controversial U.S. proposals that are being left until the end, such as government procurement and the so-called sunset clause. Plus, the U.S. and Canada have to work out a compromise on U.S.-Canada issues, including President Donald Trump's repeated vow to get U.S. dairy farmers a better deal.

But aren't the 232 tariffs still in place? There's some expectation that a preliminary deal between the U.S. and Mexico will be enough to get Trump to grant Mexico an exemption from the administration's tariffs on steel and aluminum imports — a move that also could incentivize Canada to move swiftly to wrap up the talks.

"It already makes no sense that [negotiators] are reaching an agreement when there's still a gun on everybody's head," the source said, referring to the steel and aluminum tariffs.

Time check: Guajardo is expected to meet with Lighthizer at 4 p.m., but that could change depending on their schedules, according to a source familiar with the tentative plans. Regardless, Guajardo will remain in town for "as many talks as needed" this week, the source said.

What Ottawa is watching for on NAFTA: Canadians are increasingly supportive of the job that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Cabinet are doing in the NAFTA talks, a new poll from Canadian research firm Pollara shows. Fifty-six percent of adults surveyed in late July said they approve of Trudeau's handling of the renegotiation — an 11-point increase from a previous survey conducted in December.

A majority, or 55 percent, of the 1,227 participants also said they would only support a new NAFTA deal if it makes only moderate or minor concessions to the U.S., while just 11 percent would support major concessions.

The survey reinforces the view that Canadians — who are unhappy that Trump hit them with steel and aluminum tariffs based on national security grounds — shouldn't be willing to submit to whatever Trump wants when it comes to NAFTA. And as Washington and Mexico City prepare to bring Ottawa back into the mix, the poll is a reminder that reaching a trilateral consensus on a reworked deal will involve complicated political considerations for Ottawa that could prevent things from being worked out as quickly or as easily as some would like.