Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 8/23/18

The USDA is preparing to release details on Friday of its plan to divvy up the $12 billion aid package to help farmers offset losses from retaliatory tariffs amid the administration's trade war. But commodity groups aren't sure when — or whether — they'll be briefed ahead of time. As a result, many ag groups are desperately seeking information about how much money their growers will receive and how they'll qualify for aid, report Pro Ag's Helena Bottemiller Evich and Catherine Boudreau.

It's widely expected that soybean farmers will receive the bulk of the bailout; prices for the crop have fallen $2 a bushel since March. USDA has also said it would send cash directly to certain other commodity producers — namely corn, sorghum, wheat, cotton, dairy and hog farmers.

Agri-Pulse reported that USDA proposed the payment rate for soybeans at $1.65 per bushel, while corn growers would see 1 cent per bushel. A department spokesperson contended that figure was "based on preliminary information, is incomplete, and lacks context." They added that any details reported at this stage "may turn out to be inaccurate."

Doing the math: Indeed, if that number holds up, aid to soybean farmers may total $7 billion to $8 billion, according to estimates from some agricultural economists. That could be nearly all of what's expected to go toward direct cash payments (the remainder of the $12 billion would be allocated to finding new international markets and buying up surplus commodities for redistribution in nutrition programs).

"This pie sounds like a big number, but it's going to get divided up into a lot of pieces very quickly," said David Widmar, an agricultural economist at Purdue University who is also managing partner of his family farm in eastern Kansas.

A quick turnaround: The Trump administration's race to get the aid package together in a matter of weeks forced USDA and OMB to operate on an accelerated timeline.

Trade groups quickly got to work. The National Corn Growers Association presented USDA and OMB with an economic analysis showing that trade woes have depressed the price of corn 44 cents per bushel for an overall hit of more than $6 billion to the sector.

The National Association of Wheat Growers and U.S. Wheat Associates met with the two offices on Aug. 7, presenting estimates showing that wheat prices could drop by 75 cents a bushel, costing the sector nearly $2.5 billion — in part because China has cut back on wheat purchases.