Source: Susan Kelly, MEATINGPLACE, 8/30/18


Retaliatory tariffs are curbing Chinese demand for U.S. beef and pork, leading to lower projected shipment values for those products overall in fiscal 2019, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) said in its latest quarterly Situation and Outlook Report released Wednesday.

Total exports of beef, pork, dairy, poultry and other livestock products combined are expected to decline $300 million to $30.3 billion next year, compared with 2018, ERS said. Within that total, beef is projected down $100 million as growth in volume is offset by lower unit values.

Pork is forecast down $300 million despite volume growth, as weaker demand and the impact from retaliatory tariffs are expected to pressure prices, ERS said.

Poultry and poultry products are forecast $100 million higher to $5.3 billion, due to elevated prices and volumes for most products.

Hides and skins are unchanged at $1.6 billion as demand remains soft.

Fiscal 2018 adjustments
For fiscal 2018, ERS said its livestock, dairy and poultry estimate is unchanged from May at $30.6 billion, as lower shipments of pork, variety meats, dairy products and hides and skins are offset by gains for beef and poultry products.

The beef forecast is raised $500 million as strong demand, especially in Asia, has driven growth in average unit values. Pork is lowered $100 million on both lower shipments and unit values. Variety meat exports are also adjusted lower because softer demand has pressured prices.

Poultry and poultry product exports are forecast up $200 million to $5.2 billion on higher prices for broiler meat and turkey. Hides and skins are lowered $200 million to $1.6 billion, as weak demand has depressed prices.

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