Source: Susan Kelly, MEATINGPLACE, 9/12/18

USDA reduced its forecast for total meat production in 2018 due to decreases in commercial pork and turkey output in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Thursday.

The 2018 pork production forecast is lowered from last month on the current pace of slaughter and slightly lighter expected carcass weights in the third quarter. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Sept. 27, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions into early 2019.

Second-half turkey production is lowered on recent production data. The second-quarter broiler production estimate is raised slightly, reflecting revised hatchery data, but no change is made to outlying forecasts.

The annual beef production forecast is unchanged as increases in second-half cattle slaughter are offset by lighter expected carcass weights.

For 2019, beef, pork and broiler production forecasts are unchanged. A small increase is made to turkey production.

Exports
Beef export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are raised on expectations for continued strong demand to a number of key trading partners. Pork export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are raised from the previous month as U.S. pork is expected to remain competitively priced in international markets.

Broiler and turkey export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged.

Prices
The third-quarter fed steer price forecast is raised from last month on current price strength, but the fourth-quarter forecast is reduced as the pace of marketings is raised. Hog price forecasts for 2018 are lowered on current prices and pressure from expected abundant meat supplies.

For 2019, the first-quarter hog price forecast is reduced slightly, but the annual price forecast range is unchanged. Broiler prices are reduced from last month for 2018 and 2019 on strong competition with other meats.

The annual turkey price forecast is reduced for 2018 as slightly higher third-quarter turkey prices are more than offset by expected lower prices in the fourth quarter. The 2019 forecast is reduced.

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