Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 9/19/18


The spread of African Swine Fever in China — and more recently to Belgium (close to France and Germany) — has substantially altered the outlook for the pork industry around the world. Prospects for improved export demand have grown following recent events, while the potential for the disease to spread globally has grown exponentially.

This, according to a new report by Rabobank.

With 20 cases in seven provinces in China, “it is unlikely that this disease has been contained, and additional cases are expected to be reported,” Rabobank predicted.

Curbs on animal transport within China have created significant dislocations in animal and/or pork supplies. Surplus pork is weighing on markets as producers rush to market healthy stock. At the same time, prices in urban centers, along with regions in eastern and southern China, without readily available production, have seen as much as a 40 percent increase in prices since transport bans were implemented.

“If we use the herd losses we saw in the 2007 outbreak of PRRS (AKA blue ear disease) as a benchmark, it is possible to extrapolate that a supply gap of as much as [2 million to 3 million metric tons] could emerge in the coming months,” in China the report predicted.  

Rabobank also noted ASF-positive findings in dense feral pig populations in southern Belgium could make it difficult to contain its spread.

“If feral pigs carry ASF into export-heavy countries like France or Germany, global trade could be significantly impacted. Any disruption in exports from top European trade partners would leave Asia with few options,” the report warned.

These disruptions could open export opportunities for U.S., Canadian and Brazilian pork producers, including initial panic buying.

However, Rabobank explained, the potential spread of the disease throughout Asia and/or Europe also poses a great risk to North American and South American producers.

Rabobank expects import-dependent nations to build stocks where possible and begin establishing ASF-free suppliers, noting,

“This may work to the benefit of North American and South American pork exporters, as well as global poultry and beef suppliers.”

The report also predicted, “Chinese consumers are likely to shift away from more expensive, scarce supplies of pork and toward alternative proteins like chicken, farmed whitefish, and even beef.”

For more stories, go to www.meatingplace.com.