Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 9/21/18

American farmers are now supplying more than half of the European Union's soybeans, according to new figures the European Commission released Thursday. Over 12 weeks from July through mid-September, U.S. soy exports to the EU were 133 percent higher than during the same period last year. The U.S. accounted for 52 percent of all EU soybean imports, compared with 25 percent over the same period in 2017.

Here's the catch: While the increase in European imports provides some real help to farmers, it doesn't come close to replacing the business with China that U.S. soybean growers have lost due to retaliatory tariffs. The U.S. exported about $587 million worth of soybeans to Europe over the 12-week period, which is roughly $2.5 billion on an annualized basis. China, the world's largest importer of soybeans, bought up $12.3 billion worth of U.S. soybeans in 2017 — that's 60 percent of all U.S. soy exports.

Those sales have dried up since China imposed a 25 percent retaliatory duty on soybeans and a host of other U.S. agricultural exports in July. The price of soybeans has plummeted about $2 per bushel, or 20 percent, since June — making them "very attractive" to European buyers, the European Commission noted in Thursday's announcement. USDA projects agricultural exports to China will drop by $7 billion in the fiscal year starting Oct. 1 "as soybean sales are expected to be sharply lower due to retaliatory tariffs."

The EU figures show that the U.S. has now supplanted Brazil as Europe's top soy supplier, at the same time that Brazilian soy exports have swept into the Chinese market amid the U.S.-China trade spat. But even the increased sales to Europe don't go as far because of slumping U.S. soy prices.

Partial offset: "Europe is a sizable market, so growth (hopefully sustained) helps," Chad Hart, an associate economics professor at Iowa State University, said in an email. "But compared to China, this is only a partial offset."

And the trade war shows no signs of easing. China announced on Tuesday that it would place tariffs on another $60 billion worth of U.S. goods next week, shortly after President Donald Trump gave the go-ahead for new tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports. The American Soybean Association said Thursday it was "highly concerned" about the latest escalation.

Still, the EU uptick offers at least some relief for soy growers. And it's something Trump can call a win, after he and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker agreed in July that the EU would ramp up purchases of U.S. soybeans and other commodities.

"Any gains in soybean trade are significant right now, given the free fall soybean prices have been in," Hart said.