Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 10/12/18

The new North American trade pact isn't likely to get a vote before 2019, given the packed year-end congressional schedule and limited political will for a vote this year. That means Democrats could have a huge say in whether the landmark deal is enacted, if they seize control of the House, as most polls suggest.

Labor issues could loom large: A Democratic majority in House next year would have to weigh its commitment to opposing President Donald Trump against the potential trade benefits it sees from the U.S.-Canada-Mexico deal. And House Democrats in power would make labor questions more important. There are still questions from the party and labor groups about how new labor provisions would be enforced, such as pushing Mexico to improve workers' rights and wages. Unions see that effort as critical to easing downward pressure on U.S. wages.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who worked to respond to the labor-related concerns raised by Democrats and unions during the negotiation, apparently isn't sweating the idea of a Democrat-controlled House.

From a Democratic aide: "I don't think Lighthizer is the least bit afraid of a House controlled by Dems — and I think he's played those cards well."

There's little chance the deal could sail through Capitol Hill this year. Senate Republicans would have to navigate a gauntlet of procedural hurdles to get a vote in 2018 and still preserve the Trade Promotion Authority process, which allows for an up-or-down vote with a simple majority. Without fast-track, they'd have to open it up to amendments and clear a 60-vote threshold, making passage much more challenging.

Time to drop the tariffs? Ag groups have largely backed the three-way trade pact. But many say their main concern is ending the retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products from Mexico and Canada after Trump imposed duties on steel and aluminum imports.
Perdue weighs in: "The president feels tariffs have been very instrumental in getting Canada to the negotiation table," Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told Reuters this week. With a trade deal in hand, he said, the tariffs' "usefulness regarding those two countries have diminished, and I think we should go back to our prior relationship of no tariffs on steel and aluminum."

And if tariff relief happens, USDA might scale back the second installment of its trade aid program, Perdue said. "If the tariffs do come off and the tariff impact lessens, it will have some impact over the mitigation efforts, because mitigation efforts were based on the fact that they would be tariff damage-related," he told Reuters.

USDA has already made about $6.3 billion available for direct payments to farmers, commodity purchases and marketing assistance. The department was set to decide on a second round of trade reimbursement by early December. It has budgeted up to $12 billion for the program.