Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 10/22/18

Agricultural producers feeling the trade war blowback are settling in for the long haul. Commodity prices are down and operating expenses are trending up — both partially a result of the tit-for-tat tariffs between the U.S. and its top trading partners. Many are already projecting another dip again next year unless there's a major shift in the trade situation.

Net farm income is already near 15-year lows in 2018, according to the latest forecast from USDA's Economic Research Service. Brent Gloy, an agricultural economist, predicts farm income could drop even lower in 2019. "Prices are low pretty much across the board livestock and crops. It's hard to find many bright spots," Gloy told your host.

The trade spat with China, in particular, shows no signs of easing anytime soon. Chinese retaliatory tariffs have weighed on the price of soybeans and other ag products for months.

"Prices have just fallen off a cliff since those tariffs went into effect," said Grant Kimberley, a central Iowa farmer and director of market development at the Iowa Soybean Association.

Costs are also up: Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and chemicals manufactured in China have contributed to rising prices for certain equipment, pesticides and other ordinary farm expenses.

"We have one of the lowest years of farmer profitability, and yet next year our inputs are going to be higher," said Bill Gordon, a corn and soybean grower in southwest Minnesota. Gordon said he expects fertilizer for Spring 2019 alone to cost him 15 percent more than this year.