Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 10/22/18

With two weeks to go until the Nov. 6 midterm elections, Democrats are defending a number of Midwestern farm states and districts in races that could give one party or the other a narrow majority in either chamber of Congress.

Senate Democrats will need to hang onto seats in states like Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota — not to mention winning new seats in red states like Texas or Tennessee — to have any shot at a Senate majority. The House majority, too, could hinge in part on races in Midwestern states and farm districts elsewhere.

The House picture: Two Minnesota Democrats on the House Ag Committee are leaving Congress after this term, and Republicans appear poised to flip at least one of the open seats — both in districts that voted for Trump in 2016, Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider writes.

Republican Jim Hagedorn is aiming to rekindle the rural energy that powered then-candidate Trump to a double-digit win in Rep. Tim Walz 's southern Minnesota district, even as Walz held on to his seat by a narrow margin. Walz passed on a House re-election bid to run for governor, a race he's favored to win.

Farther north, GOP prospects are even brighter in retiring Rep. Rick Nolan's district, which has been held by Democrats nearly uninterrupted for generations.

If Republicans are to maintain control of the House, their path will run through Walz and Nolan's rural districts as well as the California farm regions that are ground-zero for Democrats' takeover hopes. Some GOP and Democratic operatives think Republicans' chances are better than many polls and pundits suggest.