Source: Susan Kelly, MEATINGPLACE, 11/9/18


USDA lowered its total 2018 red meat and poultry production forecast from last month, saying reduced beef, pork and turkey supplies more than offset higher broiler production.

Beef production is reduced from the previous month on a slower expected marketing pace for fed cattle in the fourth quarter, USDA said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released Thursday. The pork production forecast is reduced on lower expected fourth-quarter hog slaughter and lighter carcass weights. 

The broiler production forecast is raised as higher reported third-quarter slaughter more than offset small declines in fourth-quarter production. The turkey production forecast is reduced on third-quarter slaughter data.

For 2019, the total red meat and poultry forecast is reduced from the previous month on lower expected beef, pork and turkey production. Beef production is reduced on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter in the first half of 2019. Pork production is reduced on lower expected first-quarter hog slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights. Turkey production is lowered as the sector continues to adjust to relatively weak prices.

Imports and exports
Beef import forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are reduced from the previous month on decreased shipments of processing beef from Australia. Beef export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are raised from the previous month on continued firm global demand for U.S. beef. The 2018 pork import and export forecasts are reduced fractionally on third-quarter trade data.

The 2018 broiler import and export forecasts are raised on recent trade data. The 2018 turkey export forecast is reduced on slow global demand. No change is made to the 2019 turkey export forecast.

Prices
Cattle and hog price forecasts are raised for 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. The 2018 broiler price forecast is raised from the previous month on current prices, but no change is made to the 2019 price forecast. The 2018 turkey price forecast is lowered from last month, but no change is made to 2019 forecast.

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