Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 11/15/18

As MA readers well know, 2019 is looking bleak for farmers and ranchers as trade woes mount. A new report out today from Rabobank, a Holland-based banking company focused on agricultural financing, is the latest warning for U.S. agricultural producers to brace for continued trade tension and other threats to commodity prices.

Trade: President Donald Trump's trade war with China remains the biggest threat, especially for soybean growers. If Beijing's 25 percent retaliatory tariffs remain in place, the report said U.S. soybean stocks "will easily double." The bank predicts that Washington's steep trade deficit with China will make it difficult for the two countries to quickly reach a major deal. But Rabobank saw it as promising that trade negotiators were able to finalize a new North American trade pact in a short span of time.

Pork problems: Rabobank also warns that pork markets could take a hit if the spread of African Swine Fever currently making its way through Chinese livestock herds worsens. Markets would likely shift as they did in response to outbreaks of bird flu, with consumers shifting preferences in consumption.

More bad news: There's also an 80 percent chance that an El Niño weather pattern could be declared by the end of the winter, which could spell wetter conditions on the Southwestern Plains and the opposite in parts of the Midwest.

"Food producers face a melting pot of risks," said Justin Sherrard, global strategist for animal protein at Rabobank. "Although it's possible that not all of them will come to pass, they need to be prepared for a difficult and worrying year in 2019."