Source: NC CLIMATE OFFICE, 11/15/18


In our previous post, we described the atmospheric patterns that could affect the northern hemisphere jet streams -- and therefore our weather -- this winter.

To recap, an emerging El Niño is likely to have the greatest impact, with wetter-than-normal conditionsexpected due to its strengthening of the subtropical jet stream.

One ENSO-related wildcard is this year's Modoki-style setup with the greatest sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and western Pacific. In some past years, that has encouraged more polar jet stream troughing -- and cold air -- over the US east coast.

Another potential impact to the polar jet stream could come from the rapid late-October increase in snow cover over Siberia. We've already seen the polar vortex weaken this month and bring colder weather to North Carolina, so additional such weakening events could have similar effects this winter.

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