Source: FARM DOC DAILY, UNIV. OF ILLINOIS, 12/13/18


Pork producers are expected to struggle with hog prices below costs of production through the winter. Record pork production and trade disputes continue to be the near-term drag on prices. However, lean hog futures are more optimistic for spring and summer prices to be high enough to provide profitability in the second and third quarters of 2019. What are the economic factors that are the foundation of this optimism, and will those higher prices actually materialize in 2019? Pork production is expected to be higher by around three percent for the rest of 2018 and again in 2019. Market inventories in the September Hogs and Pigs report were about three percent higher and represent supplies for the fall and this winter.

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