Trump-Xi truce could boost U.S. ag sales to China
Story Date: 12/4/2018

 

Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 12/3/18

The highly anticipated dinner meeting between Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the G20 gathering in Buenos Aires produced a short-term deal to release some of the trade tension that's built up between the two economic superpowers this year. But the agreement mostly just delayed the trade war's day of reckoning for a few months, our Doug Palmer and Andrew Restuccia reported from Buenos Aires (with an assist from Pro Trade's Adam Behsudi in D.C.).

Trump is now under the gun to force China to make structural changes on long-standing disputes like forced technology transfers and intellectual property theft. The U.S. is seeking resolution on key issues within 90 days, or else Trump is in position to hike tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent. (That increase was scheduled for January, but Trump agreed to hold off on it — as well as imposing new tariffs on another $267 billion of Chinese products — as part of the short-term deal.)

"We're now eight months into this conflict. So why will the Chinese government move in 90 days when they didn't [on Saturday]? What changes between now and then?" said Scott Lincicome, a trade attorney and adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute.

There's also no guarantee China will hold up its end of the bargain, like buying more U.S. agricultural goods. China's statement on the Trump-Xi deal made no mention of ag products — or the 90-day deadline, either. (Bloomberg has a handy comparison here of the White House readoutand Beijing's summary of the truce.)

— "China will be buying massive amounts of product from us, including agricultural from our farmers — tremendous amount of agricultural and other products," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, promising an "incredibly positive impact on farming."

— The quantities are still undetermined, but the purchases will begin "immediately," said White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders.

Here's the bottom line: The truce "was effectively an agreement to continue trying to agree," as Andrew put it in a G-20 wrap, and in celebrating it, Trump laid out some lofty goals and promises. He'll now face major pressure to make good on them.

























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