Source: MEATINGPLACE, 12/13/18


The 2018 outlook for total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef and poultry production forecasts more than offset lower pork production, USDA said in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The increase in beef production reflects a faster pace of steer and heifer slaughter. However, this is slightly offset by lower carcass weights.

The pork production forecast is reduced as smaller expected fourth-quarter hog slaughter more than offsets heavier carcass weights.

Broiler and turkey production forecasts are raised from the previous month on the current pace of slaughter and hatchery data.
For 2019, the total red meat and poultry forecast is lowered from last month on lower expected beef and broiler production. Beef production is forecast lower, reflecting slightly lighter carcass weights in early 2019.

The pork production forecast is unchanged from last month. USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Dec. 20, which will provide an indication of producers’ farrowing intentions for the first half of 2019. Broiler production is reduced as hatchery data points towards slowing production growth. Turkey production is unchanged from the previous month.

Imports and exports
Beef import forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are reduced from the previous month on lower expected exportable supplies of processing grade beef from Australia. No change is made to beef export forecasts for 2018 and 2019.

The 2018 pork export forecast is unchanged from the previous month, but the export forecast for 2019 is raised on continued strong global demand for U.S. pork.

The broiler export forecast is raised for 2018 on recent trade data. For 2019, the broiler export forecast is raised as competitively priced U.S. broiler meat is expected to support global demand. Turkey export forecasts are raised for 2018 and 2019 on recent trade data.

Prices
The cattle price forecast for 2018 is raised on recent price strength, but the 2019 cattle price forecast is unchanged from the previous month. The hog price forecast for 2018 is raised on recent demand strength and as this strength is expected to carry into next year, price forecasts are raised for 2019.

The broiler price forecast is raised for 2018, but no change is made to the 2019 forecast. The turkey price forecast is lowered for 2018 on current price movements, but no change is made to the 2019 price forecast.

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