Source: INTERNATIONAL COTTON ADVISORY COMMITTEE, 1/2/19

Executive Summary Highlights from the January edition of Cotton This Month regarding the 2018/19 season:

• The midpoint for the 2018/19 price forecast is 86.45 cents/lb, down from last month’s forecast of 89 cents • The price forecast has a range from 75.60 cents to 100.21 cents

• The projection reflects a 95% confidence interval

• The forecast is based various assumptions, including global consumption, ending stocks, and world trade

IWith a confidence interval of 95%, the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has set its 2018/19 price forecast for cotton fibre at 86.45 cents per pound, down from 89 cents in December 2018. The forecast, which has a price range from a low of 75.60 cents to a high of 100.21 cents, is based on the following assumptions:

• World cotton consumption will be 26.7 million tonnes.

• World cotton ending stocks will be 18.2 million tonnes.

• World trade will be 9.4 million tonnes.

• China’s cotton consumption will be 8.45 million tonnes.

• Ending stocks in China will be 7.66 million tonnes, and

• China’s cotton imports will total 1.6 million tonnes.