Source: MEATINGPLACE, 2/8/19


Total red meat and poultry production for 2018 is lowered from December as beef and broiler production more than offsets slightly higher pork production, USDA said in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Beef production is reduced on lower cattle slaughter and lighter carcass weights through late December.

Pork production is raised as heavier carcass weights through late December more than offset lower-than-expected fourth-quarter hog slaughter.

Broiler production is lowered while turkey production is unchanged. Egg production is increased slightly for 2018.
For 2019, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from December on lower expected beef, pork, and broiler production.

The 2019 beef production forecast is reduced on lower projected slaughter as smaller anticipated placements in late 2018 and early 2019 are expected to result in lower fed cattle marketings and slaughter in the first half of the year.

The pork production forecast for 2019 is lowered from December on lower expected hog slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights in the first half of the year. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated the September-November pig crop was 2 percent above 2017 and the report also indicated producers expect to expand farrowings about 2 percent in the first half of 2019. 
Forecast broiler production is lowered for 2019 on slower expected production growth in the second half of the year. The turkey production forecast is raised slightly.

Imports and exports
For 2018 and 2019, beef import and export forecasts are lowered from December on trade data to date. Pork export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are reduced on the lowered forecast of production and slower expected pork shipments to key trading partners. The 2018 and 2019 broiler and turkey export forecasts are raised on recent trade data and expectations of firm export demand carrying into next year.

Prices
Livestock, poultry and egg prices for 2018 are adjusted to reflect December price data. Fed- cattle prices for the first quarter of 2019 are raised on current prices. Hog prices are unchanged from December. For 2019, first-half broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts are raised on prices to date.

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