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Several reports this week have illustrated a mixed picture on the future of the farming:

— The USDA is optimistic about 2019, in part due to trade aid payments. Net farm income is expected to increase by 12 percent this year, to $77.6 billion, ERS said Thursday. The analysis accounts for a projected $10.2 billion in direct government money, including from USDA's package to help offset retaliatory tariffs, Helena reports.

— The value of farmland in parts of the Midwest and Plains regions largely held steady at the end of last year, but a prolonged downturn in the agricultural economy could cause values to fall, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported on Thursday, Pro Ag's Liz Crampton writes.

— The Federal Reserve of Chicago said that in its area (which covers parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan), farmland values fell 2 percent in 2018, after taking inflation into account. The Fed also reported deteriorating credit conditions, such as repayment rates.

— The U.S. share of soybean exports is projected to decline as Brazil becomes an increasingly important supplier. And the U.S. share of the global wheat market is expected to fall over 10 years, as Russia, the EU and Canada pick up business. The latest long-term projections from ERS can be found here. The full USDA report on long-term trade projections is expected March 13.